If you are deep on the inside of the Pokemon industry or just completely outside of the industry, it might feel like Pokemon cards are approaching or have approached bubble territory. 

Yes. Pokémon has a legitimate long-term collectibles investment thesis, but I think the market is currently mixing together three very different assets: scarce vintage cards, modern graded cards, and sealed wax. Their bull/bear cases are quite different. Therefore, it's not fair to simply say it is a bubble or not a bubble because it's a mix of different types of value.

The biggest mistake would be saying simply, “Pokémon keeps getting bigger, therefore Pokémon cards will keep going up.” Some will go up, but not all Pokemon cards will go up. This is true of almost all collectibles such as Sports Cards and Magic the Gathering.

My high-level view

The best bull thesis to me is Pokémon as an enduring global IP + genuinely scarce assets + sealed product purchased before scarcity is priced in.

The best bear thesis is Pokémon may remain incredibly popular while many Pokémon investments still perform poorly because supply, PSA populations and current prices are enormous. 

You could also argue that in any sort of recession there may be pressure for people to sell and generate cash for other needs. We saw this happen when interest rates rose in 2023 and the Covid bubble burst late 2022 through 2023 and even into early 2024. We have now seen the market rebound to new highs.

🐂 The bull case for Pokémon

1. Pokémon could be a generational collectibles franchise

This is the strongest argument.

Pokémon is no longer dependent on the children who collected Base Set in 1999. You now have multiple overlapping buyer groups:

1990s kids → adults with disposable income
2000s kids → adults entering prime earning years
2010s kids → future adult collectors
current kids → continuing the franchise

And Pokémon keeps bringing people back through games, Pokémon GO, TCG Pocket, new TCG eras, anniversaries, movies, nostalgia and competitive play.

That makes Pokémon fundamentally different from a collectible dependent on one generation.

🐂 2. Sealed Pokémon has a unique supply mechanism

Cards get opened.

That means the available sealed supply of an out-of-print set theoretically declines forever.

A booster box can be:

• opened by collectors

• opened by breakers

• opened by streamers

• opened years later chasing expensive singles

Every opened box makes the remaining sealed boxes scarcer.

This is one reason sealed has historically been such a compelling Pokémon asset.

Evolving Skies is an extreme example. The current TCGplayer market price for a booster box is around $2,459; around release TCGplayer was discussing boxes near $138. (TCGplayer)

That's extraordinary appreciation.

But we'll come back to why that example is also dangerous.

🐂 3. The sealed box develops an economic relationship with the chase cards

Evolving Skies demonstrates this beautifully.

Its booster box contains the possibility of:

• Umbreon VMAX

• Rayquaza VMAX

• several Eeveelution alt arts

• Dragonite

• Rayquaza V

• other desirable cards

Eventually you're no longer buying 36 packs of cardboard.

You're buying 36 lottery tickets into a culturally important set that can no longer easily be manufactured.

Umbreon VMAX itself remains incredibly valuable: PSA shows recent PSA 10 transactions around $4,000–$4,400. (Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA))

That supports the perceived value of opening Evolving Skies.

🐂 4. High PSA populations can coexist with enormous demand

This is perhaps the most interesting modern-Pokémon argument.

The Umbreon VMAX #215 has roughly:

21,563 PSA 10s

That's not rare in the traditional sense.

Yet PSA 10 copies have recently changed hands around $4,000+. (Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA))

That's remarkable.

The bull interpretation is:

Population reports matter less than the ratio between population and global collector demand.

A card with 20,000 copies and 500,000 serious potential buyers can behave like a scarce asset.

That's why I would never automatically say:

“Pop 20,000 = bad investment.”

Demand matters just as much.

🐂 5. The best Pokémon characters have something resembling brand equity

Not all Pokémon are equal.

From an investing perspective, I'd strongly prefer cards centered around characters such as:

Tier 1

• Pikachu

• Charizard

• Umbreon

• Eevee/Eeveelutions

Tier 1B

• Mew

• Mewtwo

• Rayquaza

• Gengar

• Lugia

• Greninja

Tier 2 / situational

• Blastoise

• Venusaur

• Dragonite

• Giratina

• Lucario

• legendary Pokémon

• popular starters

The iconic character can sometimes matter more than rarity.

A rare card featuring a Pokémon nobody cares about can stay cheap.

A comparatively abundant Umbreon can cost thousands.

🐂 6. Nostalgia-based sets have unusually deep demand

This is why I particularly like the concept behind sets such as:

Scarlet & Violet—151

TCGplayer currently puts the 151 Ultra-Premium Collection around $930+, far above its roughly $120 early pricing. TCGplayer describes 151 as one of the most beloved modern Pokémon sets and specifically points to its Gen I nostalgia. (TCGplayer)

151 isn't just another expansion.

It has:

Charizard
Blastoise
Venusaur
Mew
Zapdos
the entire original 151

That gives people a reason to care twenty years from now even if they don't remember the Scarlet & Violet competitive metagame.

🐻 Now the bear case

And there are some very serious bear arguments.

1. Pokémon is printing an astonishing quantity of cards

For Pokemon to continue to generate revenue, they will have to print more and more cards each year to sell new products. This may be the single biggest risk to modern investment. 

About 10 billion Pokémon cards were reportedly produced between March 2025 and March 2026, bringing lifetime production above 85 billion. (PokéBeach)

More importantly, Pokémon has explicitly said it is working to print impacted products at maximum capacity and will continue reprinting products to replenish retailers. (Pokémon Support)

That is fantastic for Pokémon players.

It's less fantastic if your investment thesis is:

“This 2026 booster box is scarce.”

It probably isn't.

At least not yet.

🐻 2. We may be confusing temporary scarcity with permanent scarcity

This is the most dangerous modern sealed phenomenon.

Suppose a booster box MSRP-ish price is $160.

Demand overwhelms release supply.

Price goes:

$160 → $230 → $280

Investors conclude:

“It's the next Evolving Skies.”

Then another wave hits.

$280 → $210 → $180.

We're seeing evidence of exactly this normalization in 2026.

TCGplayer has recently shown approximately:

• Perfect Order booster box: $172

• Chaos Rising: $187

• Pitch Black: $188

And TCGplayer specifically noted that new supply/restocks were making the market more pessimistic about newer Pokémon releases. (TCGplayer)

That is healthy for the hobby.

But painful for someone paying $275 during launch hype.

🐻 3. PSA population inflation is enormous

The slab market has changed completely.

GemRate estimates PSA graded approximately 2.49 million cards in July 2026 alone. (GemRate)

PSA itself reported an active grading backlog around 11.85 million items in August. (Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA))

Not all of those are Pokémon, obviously.

But a huge portion of modern collectors are grading cards.

So imagine buying:

PSA 10 Charizard
Population: 4,000

Two years later:

Population: 15,000

Your card hasn't changed.

But its scarcity has.

This is why the population growth rate may be more important than the current population.

🐻 4. Modern PSA 10s can be surprisingly common

Moonbreon illustrates both cases simultaneously.

PSA 10 population:

~21,563

PSA 9 population:

~6,450

There are actually far more PSA 10s than PSA 9s listed in PSA's population data. (Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA))

That tells you something very important about modern Pokémon.

A PSA 10 doesn't necessarily mean:

extraordinarily rare pristine survivor.

It can simply mean:

a modern card produced with good quality control that everybody graded.

For vintage Pokémon, PSA 10 can represent real condition rarity.

For modern Pokémon, PSA 10 often represents the preferred collectible format.

Very different investment thesis.

PSA 10 vs PSA 9

This distinction matters enormously.

Vintage

I generally think:

PSA 10

Trophy-like asset.

PSA 9

Serious collectible.

PSA 8

Attractive collector-grade card.

PSA 7

Sometimes compelling for extremely rare/iconic material.

For Base Set / Neo / Gold Stars / vintage promos, condition scarcity makes the grading ladder meaningful.

Modern

My hierarchy is different:

PSA 10

Investable if the card itself is exceptional.

PSA 9

Frequently questionable.

Raw NM

Often preferable to PSA 9.

Modern PSA 9 is a dangerous category because collectors frequently think:

“Why buy a PSA 9 when I can buy raw or spend more for the 10?”

There are exceptions for extremely expensive cards.

But generally I don't love modern PSA 9 as an investment class.

The sets I'd analyze differently

Vintage Base / Jungle / Fossil

🐂 Bull

The foundational era.

True nostalgia.

Finite supply.

Many cards were damaged by children.

Condition scarcity increases with time.

🐻 Bear

Everyone already knows they're important.

Mass-produced compared with later obscure eras.

Unlimited Base isn't genuinely rare in many grades.

My view

Strongest cards > buying the entire era indiscriminately.

I'd rather own an exceptional Charizard/Pikachu/Mewtwo than random PSA 9 holos.

Neo / Shining / e-Reader / Gold Star era

This is arguably my favorite scarcity thesis.

🐂 Bull

Lower surviving supply.

Very difficult PSA 10s.

Some of the most iconic artwork ever made.

Gold Stars / Shinings have genuine collector prestige.

🐻 Bear

Smaller transaction volume.

Much higher entry prices.

Harder to liquidate instantly.

Condition manipulation/regrading becomes important.

My view

For a 10+ year collector-investor horizon, this may actually be more compelling to me than much of modern.

XY Evolutions

Interesting middle ground.

🐂

2016 nostalgia for 1999.

Charizard.

Older sealed supplies get consumed.

🐻

It was printed heavily.

It isn't the actual 1999 card.

Much of the nostalgia premium is already recognized.

Verdict

Better sealed thesis than singles thesis, in my opinion.

Evolving Skies

Potentially the poster child for modern Pokémon investing.

🐂

Maybe the greatest modern chase-card lineup.

Umbreon.

Rayquaza.

Eeveelutions.

No longer a normal retail product.

Box supply naturally disappears.

🐻

TCGplayer now shows boxes around $2,459. (TCGplayer)

Buying something at $140 and holding it to $2,400 is one thing.

Buying it at $2,400 hoping for $8,000 is a very different proposition.

My view

Amazing asset; much less amazing entry price.

That's an extremely important distinction.

Scarlet & Violet—151

🐂

I love the fundamental thesis.

Original Pokémon.

Massive nostalgia.

Recognizable internationally.

Easy future “rip experience.”

Almost everybody understands what 151 is.

🐻

The market understands all of this too.

151 UPCs are already roughly $900+. (TCGplayer)

And Pokémon has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to increase/replenish supply.

My view

Excellent set. Price-sensitive investment.

I'd be substantially more bullish buying 151 close to retail during a surprise restock than chasing a huge secondary-market premium.

Prismatic Evolutions

🐂

Eeveelutions are essentially a collecting franchise within Pokémon.

Large chase-card lineup.

Extremely desirable artwork.

TCGplayer currently puts ordinary ETBs around $151 and Pokémon Center ETBs above $400. (TCGplayer)

🐻

The premium already assumes that everyone knows it's special.

It's relatively new.

More sealed exists in closets than people realize.

Investors themselves constitute part of current demand.

My view

Long-term bullish on the set.

More cautious on today's entry price.

Current 2026 Mega Evolution sets

This is where I think the risk/reward becomes interesting.

Perfect Order, Chaos Rising and Pitch Black booster boxes have recently moved back closer to roughly $170–190 after considerably higher early pricing. (TCGplayer)

That could mean:

🐻 interpretation

Pokémon investment mania is cooling.

Supply is overwhelming speculation.

Modern sealed won't behave like 2021-era sets.

OR:

🐂 interpretation

This is exactly when investors should be buying.

Instead of paying $280 during FOMO, you're buying strong Pokémon booster boxes while they're still actively printed.

I lean somewhat toward the second interpretation for truly good sets.

Buying boring periods is generally more compelling than buying hype.

The 30th Anniversary is particularly interesting

Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration releases September 16, 2026, just ten days from now. Pokémon says every card will be foil, the set introduces a new rarity, and classic cards are returning. (Pokémon)

That creates an obvious bull thesis:

30th anniversary

• nostalgia

• classic cards

• worldwide interest

• enormous Pokémon audience

But it creates an equally obvious bear thesis:

Pokémon knows all of those things.

So does every distributor.

So does every investor.

Meaning the print run could be enormous.

I would be extremely wary of paying huge launch premiums just because it says 30th Anniversary.

Sealed product hierarchy

For actual investing, I'd roughly rank sealed like this:

1. Booster boxes

My preferred product.

36 packs.

Dense.

Easy to value.

Easy to store.

Easy to sell.

Recognizable.

No unnecessary plastic/merchandise.

2. Pokémon Center exclusive ETBs

Much more interesting than normal ETBs.

Particularly when they contain exclusive stamped promos.

They have an additional collectible layer beyond the packs.

3. Booster bundles from special sets

For sets without English booster boxes—such as 151/Prismatic-style releases—these make sense.

Compact.

Pure packs.

Efficient storage.

4. Special premium products

UPC/Super-Premium/etc.

Can be excellent when the product itself becomes iconic.

But they're bulky.

Your investment needs to appreciate enough to compensate for storage and shipping.

5. Normal ETBs

Fine.

But I'd generally rather own the equivalent capital in booster boxes unless it's a special set.

6. Collection boxes/tins

Usually my least favorite investment.

Huge amount of physical space per dollar invested.

Awkward shipping.

Packaging damage.

Products get forgotten.

Certain promo boxes become exceptions.

The variable almost nobody talks about enough: storage efficiency

Suppose you invest $20,000.

$20k of booster boxes might fit neatly on shelving.

$20k of giant collection boxes could fill a room.

And eventually someone has to:

inspect
list
pack
insure
ship

those products.

That's a real investment cost.

So I'd heavily favor value density.

My PSA investment checklist

For a slab, I'd look at roughly these factors:

I'd particularly monitor:

PSA 10 price ÷ raw price

and

PSA 10 population growth over 12 months.

If raw is $800 and PSA 10 is $1,000, I'm not particularly excited.

If raw is $800 and PSA 10 is $2,500 because 10s are genuinely difficult, that's much more interesting.

An important concept: true scarcity vs manufactured scarcity

There are basically three situations.

True scarcity

1990s/2000s card.

Most copies damaged.

Printing ended decades ago.

Few PSA 10s.

Very strong scarcity.

Eventual scarcity

2026 booster box.

Millions exist today.

But printing eventually ends and boxes get opened.

Scarcity may develop.

Temporary scarcity

The new set sells out.

Distributors haven't received Wave 2.

Boxes go from $160 → $280.

Pokémon prints more.

Box → $180.

Not real scarcity.

This is where modern investors get burned.

The biggest bear scenario

Imagine Pokémon remains incredibly popular through 2035.

That doesn't guarantee great returns.

Pokémon could print enormous quantities every year.

Investors could warehouse unopened cases.

PSA populations could reach 50,000–100,000 for major cards.

Every major set could have ten Charizard/Eeveelution chase cards.

Collectors could have too many products competing for their money.

In this scenario:

Pokémon wins.

Collectors win.

But someone who paid $600 for a modern PSA 10 or 3× MSRP for a newly released booster box may not.

That's the sophisticated bear argument.

The biggest bull scenario

Pokémon becomes something like:

Disney + sports cards + LEGO + gaming

for collectibles.

Today's children become tomorrow's high-income collectors.

International collecting expands.

Physical cards become increasingly valued in a digital world.

The sealed opening becomes entertainment.

Iconic characters become cultural assets.

Old sealed supplies continually get destroyed by opening.

Vintage condition scarcity becomes increasingly recognized.

Under that scenario, the best Pokémon collectibles today could look surprisingly cheap twenty years from now.

Where I personally think the strongest opportunities are

If I were ranking the investment theses, rather than individual products:

1. Iconic vintage cards with genuine condition scarcity

Gold Stars, Shinings, major Charizards, Pikachus, Umbreons, Lugias, Rayquazas, etc.

2. Excellent booster boxes bought while still in print near normal distribution pricing

Not after they've gone 5×.

3. Special-set sealed acquired near retail

151 / Prismatic-type products.

4. Pokémon Center exclusives acquired at retail

Especially good promos + elite sets.

5. Truly exceptional modern PSA 10s

Moonbreon-type cards, not every SIR.

6. Raw cards with unusually favorable PSA-10 economics

This becomes more like skill-based investing/arbitrage.

7. Modern PSA 9s

Near the bottom.

8. Random collection boxes/tins bought at inflated prices

Probably bottom.

The paradox of Pokémon investing

The asset I'd most confidently say will remain desirable isn't necessarily the asset I'd buy today.

For example:

Evolving Skies booster box

Quality of asset: A+

Quality of current entry point around $2,400+: maybe C+

Whereas a genuinely excellent current-era booster box that temporarily falls toward normal distributor/MSRP economics might be:

Quality of asset today: B

Quality of entry price: A

Over the next ten years, the second investment could easily produce a better return.

That is probably the distinction I would emphasize most for Pokémon investors today.